A pragmatic strategy for implementing spatially correlated observation errors in an operational system: an application to Doppler radial winds

Recent research has shown that high resolution observations, such as Doppler radar radial winds, exhibit spatial correlations. High resolution observations are routinely assimilated into convection permitting numerical weather prediction models assuming their errors are uncorrelated. To avoid violating this assumption observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast requires the introduction of full, correlated, error statistics. Some operational centres have introduced satellite inter-channel observation error correlations and obtained improved analysis’ accuracy and forecast skill scores. Here we present a strategy for implementing spatially correlated observation errors in an operational system. We then provide the first demonstration of the practical feasibility of incorporating spatially correlated Doppler radial wind error statistics in the Met Office numerical weather prediction system. Inclusion of correlated Doppler radial winds error statistics has little impact on the computation cost of the data assimilation system, even with a four-fold increase in the number of Doppler radial winds observations assimilated. Using the correlated observation error statistics with denser observations produces increments with shorter length scales than the control. Initial forecast trials show a neutral to positive impact on forecast skill overall, notably for quantitative precipitation forecasts. There is potential to improve forecast skill by optimising the use of Doppler radial winds and applying the technique to other observation types

Reversible vancomycin susceptibility within emerging ST1421 Enterococcus faecium strains is associated with rearranged vanA-gene clusters and increased vanA plasmid copy number

Vancomycin variable enterococci (VVE) are van-positive enterococci with a vancomycin-susceptible phenotype (VVE-S) that can convert to a resistant phenotype (VVE-R) and be selected for during vancomycin exposure. VVE-R outbreaks have been reported in Canada and Scandinavian countries. The aim of this study was to examine the presence of VVE in whole genome sequenced (WGS) Australian bacteremia Enterococcus faecium (Efm) isolates collected through the Australian Group on Antimicrobial resistance (AGAR) network. Eight potential VVEAus isolates, all identified as Efm ST1421, were selected based on the presence of vanA and a vancomycin-susceptible phenotype. During vancomycin selection, two potential VVE-S harboring intact vanHAX genes, but lacking the prototypic vanRS and vanZ genes, reverted to a resistant phenotype (VVEAus-R). Spontaneous VVEAus-R reversion occurred at a frequency of 4-6 × 10−8 resistant colonies per parent cell in vitro after 48 h and led to high-level vancomycin and teicoplanin resistance. The S to R reversion was associated with a 44-bp deletion in the vanHAX promoter region and an increased vanA plasmid copy number. The deletion in the vanHAX promoter region enables an alternative constitutive promoter for the expression of vanHAX. Acquisition of vancomycin resistance was associated with a low fitness cost compared with the corresponding VVEAus-S isolate. The relative proportion of VVEAus-R vs. VVEAus-S decreased over time in serial passages without vancomycin selection. Efm ST1421 is one of the predominant VanA-Efm multilocus sequence types found across most regions of Australia, and has also been associated with a major prolonged VVE outbreak in Danish hospitals

Give It Up for Baby: Outcomes and factors influencing uptake of a pilot smoking cessation incentive scheme for pregnant women

The use of incentives to promote smoking cessation is a promising technique for increasing the effectiveness of interventions. This study evaluated the smoking cessation outcomes and factors associated with success for pregnant smokers who registered with a pilot incentivised smoking cessation scheme in a Scottish health board area (NHS Tayside)

High-Resolution Melting Genotyping of Enterococcus faecium Based on Multilocus Sequence Typing Derived Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms

We have developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) nucleated high-resolution melting (HRM) technique to genotype Enterococcus faecium. Eight SNPs were derived from the E. faecium multilocus sequence typing (MLST) database and amplified fragments containing these SNPs were interrogated by HRM. We tested the HRM genotyping scheme on 85 E. faecium bloodstream isolates and compared the results with MLST, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and an allele specific real-time PCR (AS kinetic PCR) SNP typing method. In silico analysis based on predicted HRM curves according to the G+C content of each fragment for all 567 sequence types (STs) in the MLST database together with empiric data from the 85 isolates demonstrated that HRM analysis resolves E. faecium into 231 “melting types” (MelTs) and provides a Simpson's Index of Diversity (D) of 0.991 with respect to MLST. This is a significant improvement on the AS kinetic PCR SNP typing scheme that resolves 61 SNP types with D of 0.95. The MelTs were concordant with the known ST of the isolates. For the 85 isolates, there were 13 PFGE patterns, 17 STs, 14 MelTs and eight SNP types. There was excellent concordance between PFGE, MLST and MelTs with Adjusted Rand Indices of PFGE to MelT 0.936 and ST to MelT 0.973. In conclusion, this HRM based method appears rapid and reproducible. The results are concordant with MLST and the MLST based population structure

Genomic insights to control the emergence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci.

UNLABELLED: Nosocomial outbreaks of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) are thought to occur by transmission of VREfm between patients, predicting that infection control interventions will limit cross-transmission. Despite implementation of such strategies, the incidence of VREfm infections continues to rise. We aimed to use genomics to better understand the epidemiology of E. faecium within a large hospital and investigate the reasons for failure of infection control strategies. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on 61 E. faecium (36 VREfm) isolates, predominately from blood cultures collected at a single hospital between 1998 and 2009, and on five vanB-positive anaerobic commensal bacteria isolated from human feces. Phylogenomic analysis and precise mapping of the vanB gene, which contains the Tn1549 transposon, showed that at least 18 of the 36 VREfm isolates had acquired the transposon via independent insertion events, indicating de novo generation of VREfm rather than cross-transmission. Furthermore, Tn1549 sequences found in 15 of the 36 VREfm isolates were the same as the Tn1549 sequence from one of the gut anaerobes. National and international comparator E. faecium isolates were phylogenetically interspersed with isolates from our hospital, suggesting that our findings might be globally representative. These data demonstrate that VREfm generation within a patient is common, presumably occurring in the human bowel during antibiotic therapy, and help explain our inability to reduce VREfm infections. A recommendation from our findings is that infection control practices should include screening patients for specific hospital clones of vancomycin-susceptible E. faecium rather than just VREfm. IMPORTANCE: Enterococcus faecium is an increasingly important human pathogen causing predominantly antibiotic-resistant infections in hospitalized patients. Large amounts of health care funding are spent trying to control antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals globally, yet in many institutions around the world, vancomycin-resistant E. faecium (VREfm) infections continue to rise. The new findings from this study help explain the failures of our current approaches to controlling vanB VREfm in health care institutions. Given the importance of this bacterium as a cause of hospital-acquired infections and the difficulties faced by infection control units in trying to prevent colonization in their institutions, the novel findings from this study provide evidence that a new approach to controlling VREfm in hospitals is required. In particular, more attention should be given to understanding the epidemiology of hospital-adapted vancomycin-susceptible E. faecium, and patients at higher risk for de novo generation of VREfm need to be identified and optimally managed

Comparison of aircraft-derived observations with in situ research aircraft measurements

Mode Selective Enhanced Surveillance (Mode-S EHS) reports are aircraft-based observations that have value in numerical weather prediction (NWP). These reports contain the aircraft's state vector in terms of its speed, direction, altitude and Mach number. Using the state vector, meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind can be derived. However, Mode-S EHS processing reduces the precision of the state vector from 16-bit to 10-bit binary representation. We use full precision data from research grade instruments, on-board the United Kingdom's Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements, to emulate Mode-S EHS reports and to compare with derived observations. We aim to understand the observation errors due to the reduced precision of Mode-S EHS reports. We derive error models to estimate these observation errors. The temperature error increases from 1.25 K to 2.5 K between an altitude of 10 km and the surface due to its dependency on Mach number and also Mode-S EHS precision. For the cases studied, the zonal wind error is around 0.50 ms− 1 and the meridional wind error is 0.25 ms− 1. The wind is also subject to systematic errors that are directionally dependent. We conclude that Mode-S EHS derived horizontal winds are suitable for data assimilation in high-resolution NWP. Temperature reports may be usable when aggregated from multiple aircraft. While these reduced precision, high frequency data provide useful, albeit noisy, observations; direct reports of the higher precision data would be preferable

The interplay between community and hospital Enterococcus faecium clones within health-care settings: a genomic analysis

Background: The genomic relationships among Enterococcus faecium isolates are the subject of ongoing research that seeks to clarify the origins of observed lineages and the extent of horizontal gene transfer between them, and to robustly identify links between genotypes and phenotypes. E faecium is considered to form distinct groups—A and B—corresponding to isolates derived from patients who were hospitalised (A) and isolates from humans in the community (B). The additional separation of A into the so-called clades A1 and A2 remains an area of uncertainty. We aimed to investigate the relationships between A1 and non-A1 groups and explore the potential role of non-A1 isolates in shaping the population structure of hospital E faecium. Methods: We collected short-read sequence data from invited groups that had previously published E faecium genome data. This hospital-based isolate collection could be separated into three groups (or clades, A1, A2, and B) by augmenting the study genomes with published sequences derived from human samples representing the previously defined genomic clusters. We performed phylogenetic analyses, by constructing maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, and identified historical recombination events. We assessed the pan-genome, did resistome analysis, and examined the genomic data to identify mobile genetic elements. Each genome underwent chromosome painting by use of ChromoPainter within FineSTRUCTURE software to assess ancestry and identify hybrid groups. We further assessed highly admixed regions to infer recombination directionality. Findings: We assembled a collection of 1095 hospital E faecium sequences from 34 countries, further augmented by 33 published sequences. 997 (88%) of 1128 genomes clustered as A1, 92 (8%) as A2, and 39 (4%) as B. We showed that A1 probably emerged as a clone from within A2 and that, because of ongoing gene flow, hospital isolates currently identified as A2 represent a genetic continuum between A1 and community E faecium. This interchange of genetic material between isolates from different groups results in the emergence of hybrid genomes between clusters. Of the 1128 genomes, 49 (4%) hybrid genomes were identified: 33 previously labelled as A2 and 16 previously labelled as A1. These interactions were fuelled by a directional pattern of recombination mediated by mobile genetic elements. By contrast, the contribution of B group genetic material to A1 was limited to a few small regions of the genome and appeared to be driven by genomic sweep events. Interpretation: A2 and B isolates coming into the hospital form an important reservoir for ongoing A1 adaptation, suggesting that effective long-term control of the effect of E faecium could benefit from strategies to reduce these genomic interactions, such as a focus on reducing the acquisition of hospital A1 strains by patients entering the hospital. Funding: Wellcome Trust.Peer Reviewe

The Grizzly, September 19, 1980

Reagan, Anderson Leading Carter In Campus Poll • Wismer Lunch Off to Optimistic Start • Explosive Bomb Found At NMD • College Van Policy Drastically Revised • Campus Expands With Enrollment • Bad Conditions Haunt New Women\u27s Dorm • Kane Appointed As New Executive Assistant • Ursinus Still Packing Them In • Ursinus News In Brief: Myrin Hosts Davison Exhibit; Davies Promoted In Admissions • TG Annex Almost Complete • Evening School Expands Services • Freshmen Class & USGA Treasurer Elections Coming Soon • Ron Baltz and Jenny Perform • Ritter Center To Open October 4 • For The Musically Inclined • WRUC - On The Air? • Yes A Maybe • Alternatives To Typical Parties • The Rush Is On • Switchboard Under New Operation • Police Rally To Cut Down Thefts • 1978 Alumnus Selected To Receive Award • Freshmen Offer Good Stats And Great Figures • Pre-Medical Evaluation Committee Reorganized • Bomberger Tower Finally To Be Replaced • Booters Sloppy in Close Call Over Drew • Delta Pi, ZX Defend Title; Intramural Football Underway • MAC Title: Cross Country Goal • Lack of Offense Hurts in Loss to Alfred • Hockey Starts Strong at Penn State Tourneyhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1040/thumbnail.jp

Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project

The FRANC project (Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection) has researched improvements in numerical weather prediction of convective rainfall via the reduction of initial condition uncertainty. This article provides an overview of the project’s achievements. We highlight new radar techniques: correcting for attenuation of the radar return; correction for beams that are over 90% blocked by trees or towers close to the radar; and direct assimilation of radar reflectivity and refractivity. We discuss the treatment of uncertainty in data assimilation: new methods for estimation of observation uncertainties with novel applications to Doppler radar winds, Atmospheric Motion Vectors, and satellite radiances; a new algorithm for implementation of spatially-correlated observation error statistics in operational data assimilation; and innovative treatment of moist processes in the background error covariance model. We present results indicating a link between the spatial predictability of convection and convective regimes, with potential to allow improved forecast interpretation. The research was carried out as a partnership between University researchers and the Met Office (UK). We discuss the benefits of this approach and the impact of our research, which has helped to improve operational forecasts for convective rainfall event

Association between Class III Obesity (BMI of 40–59 kg/m2) and Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies

Background: The prevalence of class III obesity (body mass index [BMI]≥40 kg/m2) has increased dramatically in several countries and currently affects 6% of adults in the US, with uncertain impact on the risks of illness and death. Using data from a large pooled study, we evaluated the risk of death, overall and due to a wide range of causes, and years of life expectancy lost associated with class III obesity. Methods and Findings: In a pooled analysis of 20 prospective studies from the United States, Sweden, and Australia, we estimated sex- and age-adjusted total and cause-specific mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for adults, aged 19–83 y at baseline, classified as obese class III (BMI 40.0–59.9 kg/m2) compared with those classified as normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2). Participants reporting ever smoking cigarettes or a history of chronic disease (heart disease, cancer, stroke, or emphysema) on baseline questionnaires were excluded. Among 9,564 class III obesity participants, mortality rates were 856.0 in men and 663.0 in women during the study period (1976–2009). Among 304,011 normal-weight participants, rates were 346.7 and 280.5 in men and women, respectively. Deaths from heart disease contributed largely to the excess rates in the class III obesity group (rate differences = 238.9 and 132.8 in men and women, respectively), followed by deaths from cancer (rate differences = 36.7 and 62.3 in men and women, respectively) and diabetes (rate differences = 51.2 and 29.2 in men and women, respectively). Within the class III obesity range, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for total deaths and deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, nephritis/nephrotic syndrome/nephrosis, chronic lower respiratory disease, and influenza/pneumonia increased with increasing BMI. Compared with normal-weight BMI, a BMI of 40–44.9, 45–49.9, 50–54.9, and 55–59.9 kg/m2 was associated with an estimated 6.5 (95% CI: 5.7–7.3), 8.9 (95% CI: 7.4–10.4), 9.8 (95% CI: 7.4–12.2), and 13.7 (95% CI: 10.5–16.9) y of life lost. A limitation was that BMI was mainly ascertained by self-report. Conclusions: Class III obesity is associated with substantially elevated rates of total mortality, with most of the excess deaths due to heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, and major reductions in life expectancy compared with normal weight. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar